How the NHL’s Significant Salary Cap Increase Helps Panthers

SUNRISE, Fla. — The National Hockey League will see a significant increase in the salary cap over the next three seasons.

The NHL and its Player’s Association announced January 31 that the cap will increase from its current $88 million to $113.5 million in 2027-28, with incremental increases between now and then. It will go up to $95.5 million in 2025-26, then $104 million in ’26-27, culminating with the aforementioned $113.5 million in ’27-28.

Each respective year-over-year increase will be the biggest since the cap was implemented in 2005 at $39 million.

This growth is thanks in part to the NHL finally coming out of the post-COVID hole they found themselves in, with limited ticket sales in a world where most arenas had capacity limits. That revenue deficit caused a $1.5 billion player debt that was finally erased last year. New United States media rightsholder deals along with jersey and helmet sponsors are other factors in this increase.

What this means for the Panthers

Florida Panthers general manager Bill Zito has done well in retaining pretty much the entire Stanley Cup-winning core with long-term deals. The only caveat is the team has been tied up in somewhat of a salary cap purgatory where they don’t have much flexibility to make roster moves without getting creative. Earlier in the year, for example, they sent goaltender Spencer Knight to the American Hockey League prior to opening night, as carrying him on the roster would have put Florida over the cap. The 23-year-old has a $4.5 million cap hit this year, but $1.15 was negated by him going to the minors.

The Panthers have 15 players signed for next year, leaving eight open spots — or they can choose to allocate money to just five players and roll into the season with 20 players.  Two of the most significant contracts up after this season are second-line center Sam Bennett and top-pair defenseman Aaron Ekblad.

The 15 players currently signed for next season account for $72.5 million, leaving $23 million open to spend on re-signing them along with other pending free agents.

Bennett is currently on the fourth and final year of his contract with a $4.425 annual cap hit, while Ekblad is at the end of an eight-year contract with a $7.5 million hit.

Projecting contracts

While there have been no reliable reports on either player’s specific demands, we can make a rough estimate on what they’d be due this summer.

Ekblad’s defensive partner Gustav Forsling signed an eight-year contract last season with a $5.75 million average annual value (AAV). When you factor health and recent performance since Forsling arrived in 2020, it would be unlikely that the Ekblad would get more than $6 million per year.

Bennett, on the other hand, is likely due for a raise based on his relatively-low AAV and his consistency as a top-six forward. Based on what other high-end second-line centers are making around the NHL, it’s fair to expect him to make between $5.5 and $7 million.

If we go to the high end of these projections, the Panthers could certainly afford to re-sign both Ekblad and Forsling for about $12 million and still have $11 million left to re-up the one-year contracts for rookie forward Mackie Samoskevich ($925k) and 26-year-old winger Jesper Boqvist ($775k). They are both restricted free agents, meaning the Panthers will be able to negotiate with them exclusively before other teams can come in with offers.

They will also have to make decisions on unrestricted free agents in fourth-line forward Tomas Nosek ($775k) and defenseman Nate Schmidt ($800k).

Of course, it also leaves room for trades and free agent signings.

Who’s locked in?

The Panthers have six players under contract through at least the 2030 season:  Anton Lundell (2030), Matthew Tkachuk (2030), Aleksander Barkov (2030), Gustav Forsling (2032), Sam Reinhart (2032), and Carter Verhaeghe (2033).