MIAMI, FL – Goodness, it feels like the college football season started only a few weeks ago. But just like that, bowl season is right around the corner.
And for the fourth straight year, FIU is going to be watching them from home instead of playing in one.
We’re approaching the final game of 2023 in a make-or-break matchup to decide if this season was truly a step up from 2022 (In which they went 4-8) or if this season is more of the same.
When FIU won three straight against Maine, North Texas, and UConn early in the season, the hype surrounding this team was real. Then we played Liberty in Homecoming and everything went downhill.
Indeed, the Panthers have lost six out of their last seven, including a blowout loss against Arkansas to knock them out of bowl game contention. Of all their losses this season, only one was by a single possession – the 22-17 L to LA Tech in Week 0.
In between six losses, a double-overtime thriller against Sam Houston State rejuvenated the fans and left some hope that FIU could win six games and make it to a bowl game – we were hoping for the Bahamas Bowl for obvious reasons.
What we got against Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee was more of the same – massive deficits early on that FIU simply couldn’t escape from. Funnily enough, that wasn’t the case in Fayetteville.
What We Learned From Arkansas
So FIU was the hot team to start the game by a score of 13-7 at the end of the first quarter. But that’s when the fun stopped as a 3-7 Razorbacks team had one of the best offensive performances of their season, scoring 24 unanswered in the second quarter.
The second half of football wasn’t anything to write home about for either team, but the damage was done. Keyone Jenkins, who hadn’t thrown an interception in his last two games, threw two against Arkansas, including a pick-six.
Was it all bad for FIU? Not entirely. A couple of school records were achieved. The first was by Jenkins, who ran for his sixth rushing touchdown of the season, which is a school record for quarterbacks.
In addition, wide receiver Kris Mitchell’s 157 receiving yards helped cross the 1,000-yard mark on the season – becoming only the third Panther to do so. (TY Hilton & Tyrese Chambers)
But still, the FIU offense became a punt-fest in the second half and the Panthers defense had no answer for Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson, who set two school records of his while running away to a 44-20 win.
In fairness to the Panthers, even the worst SEC schools still regularly match up well with G5 teams such as FIU. But still, to have to play a team like this with a bowl game appearance in jeopardy stings.
After seeing New Mexico State knock off Auburn an hour earlier, I felt like the Panthers had a better shot at the upset than they did. Moving on.
On To The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
To end their season, the Panthers have the distinct honor on Senior Day to host a team that beat them 73-0 last season.
…Anyways. WKU had an impressive 2022 campaign, going 8-6 in the regular season before knocking off South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl.
This season for the Tops has been solid but not to the extent of last year, as they currently stand with a 6-5 record with their non-conference wins coming against South Florida and Houston Christian, and their C-USA wins against MTSU and LA Tech among others.
Much like MTSU, Western Kentucky is a team that FIU has struggled to beat for a while now, with their last win in the series coming in 2018. In the 16 matchups all-time, the Panthers have lost 10 of them dating back to 2002.
The Hilltoppers have a very solid offense, ranked as the fourth-best in C-USA at the moment. (FIU is eighth) As they average over 28 points a game, their air attack is one of the best in the conference.
For once, FIU doesn’t have to go against a dual-threat type quarterback. Austin Reed tends to play a more traditional style of football, doing most of his work from the pocket and not scrambling as much as other QBs.
Still, he’s got a cannon of an arm, throwing for 27 touchdowns and 3,060 yards this season – both of which are the most in Conference USA. You could make the argument that he’s the best pure passer in the conference, and I wouldn’t argue with that.
His only downside is that he’s thrown the most interceptions in the conference with 11 total. That tends to happen in a pass-heavy offense. Sometimes he forces the ball when he needs to make a play, and this could be something FIU’s secondary could play into.
But make no mistake. Reed put up 392 yards against Sam Houston State and is a fantastic quarterback who happens to play with one of the best offensive lines in the conference. That combination is deadly, and it’s gonna be a mountain for this FIU defense to climb.
Reed has also done a great job with getting a multitude of receivers involved in games, as 11 different players have racked up over 100 yards this season, let alone two with over 300. (Dalvin Smith and Easton Messer) But WR1 is Malachi Corey, who has racked up 906 yards and 10 touchdowns.
With the second most passing yards (Behind Kris Mitchell) and the most receiving touchdowns in the conference, Corey is always a focal point for defenses but continues to put up ridiculous numbers, including 171 yards against SHSU.
WKU’s rushing game is somewhat average, with a lot of their statistics on par with that of FIU. They have not had a running back achieve more than 100 yards in a game. Still, Elijah Young has managed 444 rushing yards – the most on the team.
Western Kentucky’s defense is their Achilles Heel, however. Currently ranked as the worst in the conference – with FIU conveniently being the second worst – they’ve given up the most total yards, (4839) including the third-most rushing yards. (2,225)
As nice as it would be to revel in this, the Panthers’ numbers are just as shameful, as they’ve given up 4833 total yards as well as 2216 rushing yards. FIU and WKU also give up 439 total yards per game on average.
Both teams have given up a relatively average number of passing yards, but considering almost every team in C-USA is rush-oriented, does that matter?
The scariest aspect of their defense is probably their ability to force turnovers. With 22 this season, including three against the Bearkats last week, they have the second most in C-USA and sixth-most nationally.
It’s relatively rare to see a defensive back lead a team in tackles, but Talique Allen has done that with 46 on the season. Nine different players have recorded an interception, and 10 have forced a fumble.
Jake’s Prediction
How sweet would it be to end the season with a win?
Say what you will about this season, but a chance to play a spoiler for the Hilltoppers still leaves this game with a lot of meaning. While they’ve clinched a bowl game appearance already, a loss to FIU would leave them at 6-6 and a trip to a less desirable destination.
But I just can’t trust the Panthers anymore. Being a double-digit underdog at home used to enrage me, but now I have to accept it.
Neither defense is going to excel in this game in my opinion, so it might turn into an offensive shootout with neither team being able to pull away up until the end. But I’m going to trust one of the best offenses in C-USA to get the job done, and it sadly isn’t the Panthers.
A loss for FIU would mean a 4-8 record on the season, which would be the same as last year. As much as I don’t want to think about that, I feel it’s going to be inevitable.
Brace for impact, I suppose.
WKU – 35
FIU – 21
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