Paws Up Preview – FIU Football vs Middle Tennessee

MURFREESBORO, TN – The college football season is winding down, and every game matters from here on out in terms of getting into a bowl game for FIU Football.

Through thick and thin, through miraculous wins and utter blowouts, the Panthers stand with a 4-5 record with three games to go. FIU is heading to Murfreesboro to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders tomorrow at 3:30pm.

Fortunately for the Panthers, they had the week off to recuperate and are facing off against one of the statistically worst offenses in Conference USA. This certainly seems to be a winnable game for FIU, but don’t count out MTSU.

What We Learned From Jacksonville State

The Panthers have now had two games this season in which they gave up 21 points in the first quarter and had to spend the rest of the game catching up, just like against UTEP on Vice Night.

To FIU’s credit, they did a good job at that limiting the Gamecocks to six points in the second and third quarters, while the offense began to find rhythm in the third quarter with 13 points.

Keyone Jenkins struggled in the first half, with six of their eight offensive drives being punts. Head coach Mike MacIntyre and the FIU coaching staff decided to pull Jenkins from the game in favor of the veteran Grayson James, who hadn’t played in a game since Week 0.

And James had himself a second half, throwing for 200 yards. But a potential turnover on a muffed punt was voided when a supposedly phantom fair catch interference penalty negated it. Jax State then scored 14 unanswered to close out the game.

While it felt like FIU had a chance to get back into this game late, the fact of the matter is that they shot themselves in the foot by giving up 21 points almost immediately. The defense had no answer for the Gamecocks run-based offense which racked up 265 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

The third quarter of that game was the best the Panthers looked in a while, but it simply wasn’t enough to climb a hill steep. If they can start games that aggressively, they could have won multiple more games this season.

When asked about the possibility of either James or Jenkins getting the start tomorrow, MacIntyre confirmed that Jenkins will get the nod and they’ll see where that goes during the game.

On To The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

The Panthers are heading to the city of Murfreesboro, just south of Nashville, to take on the Blue Raiders, a veteran member of Conference USA.

MTSU had a very solid 2022 campaign, going 8-5 with a 33-28 win over FIU to close out the regular season. They took on San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl Bowl and came out victorious.

But 2023 has been a rough road for the Blue Raiders as they currently stand with a 2-7 record and are 1-4 in the conference. After losing five of their first six games of the season, they beat LA Tech in October before losing their last two against Liberty and New Mexico State.

History does not favor FIU in this matchup, however. MTSU has won 13 of the 19 total meetings with the Panthers, including the last four since 2018. Even more worrisome for FIU is that they’re 1-8 all-time at Floyd Stadium, though this will be MacIntyre’s first time at Floyd as the coach of FIU.

Middle Tennessee’s offense has only been okay, ranked sixth overall in the conference just in front of FIU. They’re led by their premium passing game but still have a solid running game to boot.

Their quarterback is Nicholas Vattiato, who has thrown for 2,334 yards, (Second most in C-USA) 16 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He’s also their second-best rusher with 263 yards and two rushing scores.

He’s had some games where he’s looked electric, such as against Liberty when he threw for 332 yards and four touchdowns. But the interceptions have been troublesome, with two picks in each game against Liberty, Jacksonville State, and Western Kentucky.

Middle Tennessee’s leading receiver is Elijah Metcalf (No relation to DJ Metcalf) who has recorded 45 receptions for 552 yards and five touchdowns. He, along with Holden Willis (447 yards) and Justin Olson (418) have been a dynamic receiving core and are a tough group to maintain for secondaries.

The Blue Raiders running game leaves a lot to be desired but still features talent, including Jaiden Credle, who leads the team with 385 rushing yards. Still, their air game has almost doubled the yards achieved. They tend to rely on the running game in the red zone or goal line.

MTSU’s defense has also looked solid in some games but has given up over 30 points in five different contests this season. When it comes to sacks and interceptions, they’re neck and neck with FIU with 16 and six, respectively. (FIU has 14 sacks and six picks so far)

Keep an eye out for linebacker Sam Brumfield, who leads the defense with 67 tackles. Safety Tra Fluellen leads the backfield with three interceptions.

Jake’s Prediction

Both FIU and Middle Tennessee feel a bit even right now in terms of power rankings, with them being next to each other in a lot of stats on both offense and especially defense. Considering it’s a home game for MTSU, it makes sense why they’re double-digit favorites.

But when they play at their best, the Panthers offense has overall looked better, and maybe that’s the key to an upset. They need to start hot and adjust accordingly in the second half, not be sluggish early on and become great later in the game.

Then there’s the moral side to this game. MTSU is eliminated from bowl game contention, but FIU has everything to play for. Between this game and their next two against Arkansas and Western Kentucky, this will be their best shot at a win.

Yes, both teams enter this game having lost four of their last five, but I expect the Panthers to play their best football of the season with the stakes on the line. I think it’ll still be a close game that’s low-scoring, but I feel FIU can squeeze one out here.

FIU – 24

MTSU – 20