Lemonsiders Fantasy Facts – Over Rated ADP

As the draft is approaching, you’ll hear all sorts of talk about guys that will be bust and to completely avoid drafting. I wanted to take a different approach and not completely rule guys out all together but instead make a stance on fading players based on their ADP. I wouldn’t 100% base a draft just solely on value but it’s definitely something that should be considered because where you draft a player is extremely important. A simple example of that would be defenses and kickers. No need to draft those in early rounds based on value.

Here’s a list of players I feel are currently being drafted way too high. The ADP’s are based on 12 team PPR leagues.

RB – Marshawn Lynch, Raiders current ADP: 2.09

After being out of football for over a year and now at the age of 31, Beast Mode is back and on the silver and black. The last time he played was in 2015 but he was limited to only 111 carries because of hamstring and abdomen injuries. Seems like we’re hoping for Lynch to produce numbers from his past and realistically, it’s difficult for Lynch to produce those numbers at this point in his career. To his advantage, he is on a great offense with a solid offensive line but on the downside, reports from Oakland are there is a good chance they will limit him to 200 touches for the season. He will also lose touches to Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. For a second round pick, you’re basically hoping he reaches 1,100 yards and has double digit touchdowns. I could see Lynch getting the goal line work in this offense but to me that still doesn’t justify him as a Round 2 pick for a 31 year old RB who’s been out of the game for some time. If he slips down in your draft and could be your RB3/4 then you could take a shot but being your RB1 or RB2 at Round 2 is WAY too rich for me.

NEVER EVER forget these wise words from Marshawn Lynch pic.twitter.com/Y3rThq3I3b

— Team Athlete (@TeamAthIete) July 16, 2017

Players I’d prefer in the mid/late 2nd round:  WR Dez Bryant, WR Doug Baldwin, TE Rob Gronkowski

RB – Derrick Henry, Titans current ADP 6.11

Derrick Henry is the prime example of not drafting handcuff RB’s which I discussed in the 10 Tips for your Fantasy Draft article. You’re basically drafting Derrick Henry believing/hoping Murray will go down with an injury and that’s a huge gamble, especially in the 6th round. This is something you do later on in your draft with picks 11-13, not in the 6th. Derrick Henry is a powerful runner and yes, if Murray goes down he could very well produce RB1 numbers on a run first offense behind a great offensive line. DeMarco Murray last year had more than DOUBLE the carries of Henry so the only realistic upside of Henry would be an injury to Murray. I love Derrick Henry as a RB but unless Murray gets injured in pre-season, there’s no way I’m even drafting Derrick Henry in a 12 team or smaller league in the 6th round.

“He could be a No.1 RB on most teams, & he will be the No.1 one day.”@KingHenry_2 Ready for Year 2 📰 » https://t.co/YYTc2rsGsc pic.twitter.com/hBxDcQ7DHn

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) August 2, 2017

Players I’d prefer in the late 6th round: HB: Tevin Coleman, WR Willie Snead, WR Jamison Crowder

WR – Brandon Marshall, Giants current ADP 5.09

Some fantasy analyst believe he’ll be produce in this Giants offensive since he’s been a great red-zone target throughout his career while others believe at age 33, he’s already on the decline. Marshall does have an upgrade at QB this year compared to the terrible struggles from Ryan Fitzpatrick and that Jets offense last year. Problem is, with Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and rookie tight end Evan Engram on offense, I can’t see Marshall coming close to the usual amount of targets he’s use to ( averages 145 targets a year in his career) unless there is injuries to ODB or Shep. If he can somehow be your WR4/5 and he slips into maybe round 8-9, then take the shot but I wouldn’t pull the trigger before that.

In the last 5 seasons, 5 flex players recorded 250+ PPR points after switching teams.

Brandon Marshall did it twice.#ESPNFantasyMarathon pic.twitter.com/z7VdQPcTLa

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 15, 2017

Players I’d prefer in round 5: WR Julian Edelman, WR Golden Tate, WR Jarvis Landry

WR – Randall Cobb, Packers current ADP 8.12

Last year Cobb’s production declined from his 2015 season due to nagging injuries and also the emergence of DeVante Adams. In the 13 games he played in 2016, he only had 3 double digit target games and finished as WR52 in PPR scoring. Being a WR on the Packers offense with Aaron Rodgers favors Cobb to have a bounce back this year but he’s now in the WR3 role, not the WR2. Hopefully Cobb can stay healthy this year and get more involved in the offense after having a team leading 71.4% catch rate last season. After last years numbers, it’s difficult for me to pull the trigger on Cobb this year and especially around the 8th round. He’s someone I look forward to possibly picking up off the waiver wire during the season, not in my drafts.

❎Randall Cobb’s ❎receiving yards per game have 📉📉 for the last 3️⃣ Seasons. 🏈Is he going to Reverse that trend this year❓❔❓#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/3BQQycOoC1

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 5, 2017

Players I’d prefer in the late 8th round: TE Kyle Rudolph, WR DeVante Parker, QB Kirk Cousins

TE – Jordan Reed, Redskins current ADP 4.12 

Jordan Reed is a top tier TE in the league but the past two years, injuries continue to be a huge concern. Last year Reed’s ADP was similar to this years but he ended up as the TE9. He’s never played a full 16 game season but when he’s healthy, he’s an absolute must start option in the Redskins offense. I always have trouble drafting players with higher injury concerns than others, especially early in drafts and ESPECIALLY for a TE position. My draft strategy usually has TE going later so I’m biased on avoiding TE’s in the 4th, especially those with a history of injuries. If you do decide to draft Reed in any round, be ready to hit your waiver wire at any point in the season.

Jordan Reed’s 2017 Projected Stats: 62 receptions, 674 yards, 5 TDs, 7 injuries, 2 ejections pic.twitter.com/NkdsUQuwTg

— ESPN FantasyFauxball (@ESPNFauxball) August 6, 2017

Players I’d prefer in the late 4th round: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Michael Crabtree, QB Drew Brees

TE – O.J. Howard, Buccaneers current ADP 10.09

The history of rookie TE’s for fantasy football has always made me completely fade from drafting one. As athletic and exceptional as O.J. Howard is and despite the Bucs taking him with their first overall pick, I still prefer their other TE Cameron Brate as of now. Was under the radar but Brate finished as TE6 last year in PPR scoring. Howard is more athletic and a better blocker but as of now I favor Brate as the pass catching TE in Tampa Bay. The Bucs acquired DeSean Jackson in the offseason, drafted Chris Godwin who may end up starting in the slot plus they have a stud in Mike Evans AND they run two TE sets. O.J. Howard may not get the volume to leap him into a top 10 TE so he’s someone I can’t see drafting unless he’s my 2nd TE and I would have to be in a bigger league.

Video: #Bucs QB Ryan Griffin drops in a pass for O.J. Howard with Kendell Beckwith in coverage. pic.twitter.com/mMNy5N4DX4

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) August 4, 2017

Players I’d prefer in the 10th round: WR Quincy Enunwa, WR Corey Coleman, RB Theo Riddick

Lemonsider Fantasy Facts is where a fantasy football (borderline obsessive) enthusiast brings you the goods you need to lead you to a championship which will allow you to flex your muscles and talk trash to your league members for months to come. Put your graph calculators away because formulas and algorithms that confuse many won’t be seen here. Will be serving up simple, easy to digest fantasy info for all you lemon heads.

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